慎心堂

[ Why this summer may feel like harsh winter]

The public sector in Europe continuous to get bigger , while the private sector is being hammered. Today levies are going up almost everywhere, and pro-growth structural changes, such as loosening labor laws, are being pursued ,Italy ,Greece and Spain won’t move beyond token steps.

歐元區的勢力逐漸增強,即使個別的勢力有被消減.而如今各地都在增稅,成長的結構已經改變,如鬆散的勞工法仍在進行下去,義大利,希臘及西班牙則將不願意成為象徵性代表

France ,now led by a socialist whose ideology our president loves, is heading off the proverbial cliff. Germany wants more regulatory powers for the EU, along with new bureaucracies, both growth killers. Printing more money won’t help here. Such perverse policies haven’t been pursued since the early 1930s, when government thought that raising taxes and devaluing their currencies was the way to combat the worsening slump . Europe’s financial system is in a precarious position . Will it be 2008 again ? Banks are loaded with government junk bonds, and most EU countries economies are contracting, which makes servicing these debts more problematic.

法國,如今由社會主義領導理想的總統人選,力挽汪瀾德國想為歐盟製訂更為規則的力量,加上新的官僚體係,卻是成為成長的殺手.多印製鈔票無用,自1930早期,如此剛愎的政策就不曾使用,當政府認為提高稅率及貶值貨幣將是對抗惡化暴趺的最佳利噐。歐洲財政系統已經處於不安的狀態, 2008金融海嘯再現? 銀行背負政府的垃圾債卷,而大部份歐洲國家的經濟正在收縮而使得償還這些債卷顯得更加有問題

Then there is Iran , Last April the US” persuaded” the Israelis not to strike Tehrans’ unclear facilities. But the Jewish state held off only because the U.S. military’s buildup in that part of the world is growing rapidly. Israel may strke soon . Such a crisis could be the event that brings down Europe’s rickety financial system .

而再者還有伊朗,今年四月美國說服以色列不攻擊Tehran’s核武設施,但猷太人基於美國軍方參與世界其中一方的積極成長的宣傳工作,如此危機將同時導致歐洲的財務系統更為嚴重.

The U.S. economy is in no position to counteract a European implosion. Nor are Asia’s : Japana is stagnant , as usual ; China’s economy is slowing . and Singapore’s economy , the bellwether for that part of world ,declined in the second quarter .

美國經濟現狀是不能導致歐洲內部破裂,亞洲亦然,而如往長一樣,中國的經濟成長緩慢.而新加坡經濟,是為世界一部份的繫鈴羊,在第二季也造成衰退

All this puts a peculiar pressure on Mitt Romney’s nomination acceptance speech . If he gives a full-throated address, fleshing out pro-growth principles and policies, equity markets may rally in anticipation that the U.S. will once again rise , as it did in the early 1980s , thereby saving itself and the from disaster .

所有事件造成Mitt Romney’s的提名演說前有未有的壓力,如果他給了深喉嚨演說,增加親向成長的方針及政策.市場將會參與而美國則將會再起,就如同1980早期一樣,則將可拯救美國及其它國家從這場災禍中逃出.

Enjoy the nice weather .